This is my “Tweakonomics” article on Indra Dev and Monsoon Forecasting in India published in the Hindu Business Line today. Here’s a quick excerpt:
The scene opens in the Indra Sabha, where LOTR, Lord of the errr, “Rains”, presides in full glory over humbler portfolios like Costumes and Jewellery.
Sevak: My Lord, the Indian Meteorological Department has given its long range forecast. Its website claims that the monsoon will arrive on time this year and will hit Kerala on 1st June 2015.
Indra Dev (interested): Oh ho! Really? Tell me, Sevak, on what basis do they make such claims?
Sevak: Sir, the poor earthlings at the IMD still use statistical modelling for monsoon forecasting. Can you believe it, Sire? I mean, this “identification of predictors to forecast the predict, assuming that the nature of the long run relationship between dependent and independents is stable” is boring ole OLS stuff. Almost Muggle stuff, you know, Sir! But Indian blizzard, being more wizard, defies predictability and hence, prediction. If you’ll permit your humble servant a quick spell, Sir…Cumulonimbus cyclonum!
Indra Dev: Confound that Potter woman! Not one of my trusted Sevaks can create a cumulonimbus in Sanskrit anymore. Sevak! Stop rolling about Rowling. And get Tolkien, I mean…talking.
For the full article, please see Of cumulonimbus | Business Line.